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Jason Wei argues that radiologists will stay in demand despite AI, because cheaper scans will drive elastic demand, rare diseases will keep AI in a triage role for years, and healthcare's slow adoption and regulation will buy time. He uses Geoff Hinton's 2016 prediction that radiology training should stop as the foil.
- AI will handle common, easy-to-see conditions first but lag on rare diseases, since there is less data for them, so expect 3-5 years of triage use before full automation.
- Jevons paradox: if reading a scan becomes nearly free, radiologists might read only 20% of scans while five times as many arrive, and many developing countries with under one radiologist per million people would add demand.
- Cheap interpretation could push device makers toward cheaper, more frequent scanners, and medical regulation, legacy infrastructure, and data access limits will slow adoption.